Nuclear's Role in 21st Century Pacific Rim Energy Use: Results and Methods
Last updated: September 8, 2008
Authors
|
|
J’Tia Taylor
Graduate Student, Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering
|
Published by Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
ACDIS Research Report series
September 2007
Full text [PDF]
Summary
Extrapolations contrast the future of nuclear energy use
in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) to that of
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Japan can expect a gradual rise in the nuclear fraction
of a nearly constant total energy use rate as the use of
fossil fuels declines. ROK nuclear energy rises gradually
with total energy use. ASEAN’s total nuclear
energy use rate can rapidly approach that of the ROK
if Indonesia and Vietnam make their current nuclear
energy targets by 2020, but experience elsewhere suggests
that nuclear energy growth may be slower than
planned. Extrapolations are based on econometric calibration
to a utility optimization model of the impact
of growth of population, gross domestic product, total
energy use, and cumulative fossil carbon use. Fractions
of total energy use from fluid fossil fuels, coal,
water-driven electrical power production, nuclear energy,
and wind and solar electric energy sources are fit
to market fractions data. Where historical data is insufficient
for extrapolation, plans for non-fossil energy
are used as a guide. Extrapolations suggest much more
U.S. nuclear energy and spent nuclear fuel generation
than for the ROK and ASEAN until beyond the first
half of the twenty-first century.
