The New Nuclear Arms Control Environment: Trip Report and Project Conclusions [revised]
Last updated: June 11, 2009
Author
Published by Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS), University of Illinois
ACDIS Occasional Paper series
July 2002
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Summary
This report describes the outcome of nine sets of workshops and private meetings on current diplomatic and security problems related to nuclear arms control. Part One of the report starts with key observations from each of the five countries visited in a series of workshops and meetings from 18 March–6 April 2001. It also summarizes relevant information from subsequent meetings in Geneva and from Annecy in France from 21-23 May, and in Washington on 20 June 2001. Part Two provides a longer narrative explaining how these observations inform an overall understanding of the current impasse on multilateral aspects of nuclear arms control, and how this impasse may eventually be broken. Key to this is finding a mechanism to convince China that U.S. national missile defense (NMD) efforts will not require further additions to already planned Chinese strategic modernization in order to avoid undermining the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent. If and when this understanding can be achieved, those interviewed in China seemed convinced that other impediments to an agreement on an end to unsafeguarded fissile materials production might be overcome. This was not inconsistent with the view from South Asia, provided that sufficient time elapses for Pakistan to build up its nuclear capabilities and other issues do not induce Japan, Israel, and other key countries to block agreements necessary to get India and Pakistan on board.
