Recent Publications

Is a Naval Nuclear Arms Race with China Inevitable?

Author: Clifford Singer
China’s intercontinental nuclear-armed rockets used to be immobile and liquid fueled. Those rockets were configured to make a political statement about possession of nuclear weapons capability by creating uncertainty about the possibility of at least one reaching its target, not necessarily to survive a nuclear first strike. Now China is reportedly developing solid fueled road-mobile rockets with multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). Of even greater interest for the present discussion, China is reportedly developing submersible ships with ballistic missiles and nuclear propulsion (SSBNs) with twenty-four missiles with about six nuclear warheads per missile. These developments raise serious questions about U.S. military and diplomatic strategy vis-à-vis China. Read More

Climate Action Gaming Experiment: Methods and Example Results

Author: Clifford Singer and Leah Matchett
An exercise has been prepared and executed to simulate international interactions on policies related to greenhouse gases and global albedo management. Simulation participants are each assigned one of six regions that together contain all of the countries in the world. Participants make quinquennial policy decisions on greenhouse gas emissions, recapture of CO2 from the atmosphere, and/or modification of the global albedo. Costs of climate change and of implementing policy decisions impact each region’s gross domestic product. Participants are tasked with maximizing economic benefits to their region while nearly stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the end of the simulation in Julian year 2195. Results are shown where regions most adversely affected by effects of greenhouse gas emissions resort to increases in the earth’s albedo to reduce net solar insolation. Read More

How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming

Author: Clifford Singer, Timothy Milligan, and T.S. Gopi Rethinaraj 

Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of global CO2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1) Help develop low-carbon energy technology broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2) Entice other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive fossil fuels; (3) Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon emissions. Read More